1. 逐字稿
输入“/”快速插入内容
1. 逐字稿
1. 逐字稿
飞书用户90592024年12月31日修改
关键词
more people big question whole thing whole diplomatic shift more insight little more political shifts big change big one more leverage more money more barriers important thing own thing big challenges Japan more options few things more Chinese tourists
文字记录
说话人 1 00:00
Okay, so get this picture in your mind. Japanese Foreign Minister Hayashi Yoshimasa arrives in Beijing on December 25th,2024. Christmas Day. You got it. And not for like a holiday dinner or anything. They're super early in the morning. Yeah, doesn't exactly sound like a casual let's hang out trip, you know, not at all. So we're going deep on this one. Okay, Japanese Foreign Minister's winter visit to China marks a shift in foreign policy towards China. Interesting to figure out what in the world is happening here. It's definitely.
说话人 2 00:34
A head scratcher arriving like that early hour, you know, suggests a super busy schedule. And it really feels like they wanted to get right down to.
说话人 1 00:42
Business. Yeah, like no time to waste, right? Exactly. So let's unpack this whole visit and what it could mean for, well, everything. Okay, is Japan backing away from how close they are with the US? What does this mean for the future between Japan and China? Could this December trip, which sounds kind of cold and serious. Actually warm things up between them? So many questions.
说话人 2 01:04
To understand maybe a potential shift here. Let's break down what Hayashi actually did during his day in Beijing. He met with the Chinese premier, Li Qiang, but the big one, the main event was this Marathon meeting with Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
说话人 1 01:21
Oh, a Marathon. Like how long are you talking here? 3 hours?
说话人 2 01:26
Way longer than the meeting the last Japanese foreign minister ad.
说话人 1 01:30
Okay. So they weren't just there for like a quick handshake and a photo up.
说话人 2 01:33
No, this was serious business. Three hours suggest they were really diving into some important topic. Okay.
说话人 1 01:38
Three hours, that's gonna be some kind of record. So what do they actually get done during all that time?
说话人 2 01:44
Well, they agreed on a few important things. Like they're gonna try to boost their economic and cultural ties. And they talked about ways to, you know, improve how people in both countries see each other.
说话人 1 01:54
At least sentiment. Right.
说话人 2 01:55
Exactly. And on top of all that, Wang Yi invited Hayashi to visit Japan in 2025. All really good signs, I think, of things moving in a positive.
说话人 1 02:05
Direction. Yeah, sounds promising. But honestly, the thing that really caught my eye was this whole announcement about visas. Oh, right. Japan's making it easier for Chinese tourist to visit. Oh, there's a new 10 year multiple entry visa. And group tours can stay longer now. It's.
说话人 2 02:24
A big change.
说话人 1 02:25
It feels significant, right?
说话人 2 02:26
Definitely. It kind of mirrors what China's been doing, you know, with visa free policies for some other countries. It shows that Japan's serious about, well, boosting tourism and trade with.
说话人 1 02:35
China and given their economy moving again.
说话人 2 02:37
Right. Japan's tourism industry was hit hard by the pandemic. Having more Chinese tourists would be a big boost.
说话人 1 02:43
Makes sense. And it's interesting how different this is from what we're seeing between the US and China, right? They're putting up more and more barriers, not taking them down. It.
说话人 2 02:51
Feels like Japan's doing its own thing here, separate from the US.
说话人 1 02:55
Charting their own course.
说话人 2 02:56
Exactly. Japan's trying to walk this tightrope. They wanna keep their strong alliance with the US, but also build a better relationship with China.
说话人 1 03:04
Right? Because that relationships becoming more and more important to share. And speaking of political shifts, let's rewind a bit. Okay, former Prime Minister Kashida Fumio, he took a really tough stance on China. He really put the US Japan alliance first above everything else.
说话人 2 03:19
Right. But there was some pushback on that approach. Shiro to Shiro, a political science professor at Jose University, he openly questioned how Keshia was handling things with China.
说话人 1 03:29
Interesting. And now we have a new prime minister, Ishiba Shigeru, and it seems like he's taking a different path.
说话人 2 03:36
Absolutely. He's been meeting a lot with Chinese leaders since he took office. Hayashi's visit is part of that, a clear effort to build a better relationship.
说话人 1 03:45
So it's not just the different leadership style. It feels like a whole different strategy. But what's behind this shift? Is it all just political maneuvering?
说话人 2 03:52
Well, there are a few things going on. Don't forget about Donald Trump. It's looking like he's headed for a second term as US president. Oh, right. And Japanese media is saying that this could mean Japan has to pay more to keep those US military bases in Japan, you know.
说话人 1 04:07
That puts Japan in a really tough position.
说话人 2 04:10
Exactly. They're stuck between a rock in a hard.
说话人 1 04:12
Place. Can you talk a little more about that? How could a second Trump term force Japan to choose sides between the US and China?
说话人 2 04:20
Well, imagine this, Trump, who's all about America first, right? He demands more money from Japan to keep those US military bases there. That puts Japan in a real bind. Do they give in to their old ally, the US, and maybe damage things with China, who's a huge economic partner? Or do they risk making the US mad even though the US are their security guarantee.
说话人 1 04:43
Right? Because they depend on the US for Protection, too. It's a balancing.
说话人 2 04:46
Act for sure.
说话人 1 04:46
It sounds like Yeshib is under a ton of pressure to find that balance.
说话人 2 04:49
Yeah, he has to keep the US happy, but he also can't afford to wreck things with China.
说话人 1 04:54
And then there's also the whole internal political situation, right? Yeah.
说话人 2 04:57
Ishiba's party, the Liberal Democratic Party. They didn't do as well as they expected in the last house of representatives elections, so there's pressure on him to deliver, to show he can get things done.
说话人 1 05:09
So he needs to win.
说话人 2 05:10
Pretty much. And a lot of Japanese businesses have been saying for a long time that Japan needs a better relationship with China. So this move could be a win for everybody. Yeshiba looks strong. The economy might get a boost.
说话人 1 05:23
Strategic move, definitely. So it sounds like it's a mix of things pushing Japan towards China, the economy, pressure from the US and Egypt, his own political situation.
说话人 2 05:34
It's complicated. But even with all that, pushing them together, let's not forget about the history three between Japan and China. There's a lot there.
说话人 1 05:41
You're right. It's not just about governments and money. No. It's about how people feel about each.
说话人 2 05:46
Other. Exactly. And that's not something you can change overnight.
说话人 1 05:49
No, definitely not.
说话人 2 05:50
You know, public opinion matters a lot in this whole thing. And there was this recent survey by the China International Publishing Group and the Zhenron NPO. It showed that, well, people in China and Japan still don't have very favorable views of each other. That's that good? No, it's gonna be tough to bridge that gap.
说话人 1 06:09
So even with all these like diplomatic smiles and handshakes. Yeah, it sounds like there's a long road ahead for China Japan relations. It might.
说话人 2 06:18
Be a long one, but there are some hopeful signs. Hayashi himself said that they need to get past the negative feelings. He emphasized that China is a crucial neighbor and they're not going anywhere.
说话人 1 06:30
Wow, that's a pretty big statement. Yeah, it sounds like he knows they've got work to do. He does. But the question is, can they really overcome all that history and all the pressure from the US?
说话人 2 06:41
That's the big question, isn't it? It is. And it's a question we'll keep digging into as we go deeper into this whole diplomatic shift.
说话人 1 06:47
This is just the beginning, right? There's so much more to unpack here. That's, and you know what's really interesting about all of this, it's happening as we get closer to the 80th anniversary of the end of World War 2 in 2025. Right. That's a sensitive anniversary, to say the least. Yeah, especially when it comes to China in Japan.
说话人 2 07:06
Absolutely. What Japan did back then, it's still a big source of tension and honestly resentment in China.
说话人 1 07:13
Yeah, it's hard to forget something like.
说话人 2 07:14
That, right? And how Japan chooses to commemorate this anniversary, will, everyone's gonna be watching that very. So.
说话人 1 07:21
Do you think they'll actually address those historical issues head on?
说话人 2 07:26
It's hard to.
说话人 1 07:26
Say. Will they show a real commitment to peace and moving forward? Or will they try to kind of sweep it all under the rug? That's.
说话人 2 07:33
The million dollar question. If Japan really wants a strong, trusting relationship with China, they can't just ignore what happened. Their actions or even in action will speak volumes.
说话人 1 07:46
It's like they're walking a tightrope, right? You've got all this historical baggage and then the pressure from the US geopolitically, and then you've got people in both countries who are skeptical of the whole thing. It's.
说话人 2 07:57
A lot to juggle. It really is. It makes you wonder if all this positive energy between China and Japan, can it actually survive all of that.
说话人 1 08:06
Right? Because it's one thing to have nice diplomatic meetings and sign agreements. Exactly. But changing how people will really feel about each other, yeah, that's a whole different challenge.
说话人 2 08:16
It's like trying to build a bridge across a huge gap, you know? Oh, I like that. You need strong materials in a solid foundation if you want it to hold up.
说话人 1 08:25
Otherwise, it's just gonna collapse. Exactly. So what needs to happen for this relationship to really work.
说话人 2 08:31
Well, both sides have to be committed to this. They have to genuinely understand each other's perspectives and they have to build trust little by little. It's a process. It's a long process.
说话人 1 08:42
And we can't forget about public opinion.
说话人 2 08:44
Absolutely not. That's a huge part of it.
说话人 1 08:47
Governments can shake hands and make deals all they want, but if the people in both countries aren't on board, it's not gonna let. Exactly. It'll fall apart.
说话人 2 08:56
Changing how the public sees things, that takes time. It takes consistent effort, open communication and a willingness to face some un comfortable truths about the past.
说话人 1 09:08
And it also takes, I think, seeing each other for who they are now.
说话人 2 09:11
Right, not just who they were in the past. It's about.
说话人 1 09:13
Building a new narrative together, right? The exact one that acknowledges the bad stuff that happened but focuses on building a shared future.
说话人 2 09:21
And that narrative has to resonate with people. It has to give them a vision of a future where cooperation is more important than past grievances.
说话人 1 09:30
Where everyone benefits. Exactly. So what could that look like in real life? What concrete steps could Japan take to build that trust and improve how people in China see them?
说话人 2 09:39
Well, one important step is more people to people diplomacy. Okay, where's that mean? Encourage more cultural exchanges, student programs, tourism. These kinds of interactions can help breakdown stereotypes and help people understand each other better.
说话人 1 09:53
So move beyond just the government level. Yeah. Get everyday people involved.
说话人 2 09:58
Exactly. Create opportunity. Unities for shared experiences facilitate open discussions about the past, even the hard parts, encourage collaboration on things like climate change or economic.
说话人 1 10:11
Development. Find common ground, right?
说话人 2 10:13
Show that they're working together.
说话人 1 10:14
It sounds like it has to be a multifaceted approach. It does, but we also have to remember the economic concerns we talked about earlier. How can Japan balance their reliance on China economically with all the pressure they're getting from the US?
说话人 2 10:27
That's the tricky part. Japan needs to diversify, you know. Diversify, yeah. Find other economic partners, explore opportunities in Southeast Asia, India, Europe. Don't rely so much on any one country, even China.
说话人 1 10:42
Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
说话人 2 10:43
Exactly. Spreading things out gives Japan more options, more leverage into diplomatic talks. And it makes them less vulnerable to pressure from any one nation.
说话人 1 10:53
So it's all about having options. It is. It sounds like Japan is facing a really complex, complicated set of challenges. Yes. And opportunities.
说话人 2 10:59
Right? They're trying to figure out their place in a changing world, deal with the past and make sure their economy is strong in the future. It's a lot. It is a defining moment for Japan for sure. The choices they make in the next few years, they'll have a huge impact not just on their relationship with China, but on their role in the whole world. It's.
说话人 1 11:18
A big deal. It is. It's definitely something we'll be watching closely. Definitely. But let's go back to Hayashi's visit for a minute. What do you think was the most important thing that came out of that trip? Was it the visa changes, the long meetings, or was it something else entirely?
说话人 2 11:36
That's a good question. The visa changes in the meetings, those are important for sure. They show the things are moving. But I think the most significant thing was the tone. You know, the tone, yeah. Hayashi's willingness to really engage with China, to have those in depth conversations, even arriving on Christmas Day, that shows a real desire to improve things.
说话人 1 11:57
Like they're saying, we're serious about this. We're here to make this work.
说话人 2 12:00
Exactly. And that commitment is essential. Without it, any progress they make could easily fall apart.
说话人 1 12:06
So it's not just about making a good impression. No, it's about putting in the work day after day.
说话人 2 12:11
Yeah, it's about constantly talking and trying to understand each other. And that's.
说话人 1 12:14
Something that takes time and effort. It.
说话人 2 12:16
Does. Diplomacy is a Marathon, not a sprint. And this is just the beginning of what could be a long and complicated process.
说话人 1 12:23
Which makes you wonder, what's the next chapter gonna be, right. Will this new direction in Japanese foreign policy lead to a real lasting improvement with China or will all that history and those geopolitical tensions pull them apart in the end?
说话人 2 12:41
Those are the questions we all want answers to. We do. And unfortunately, we don't have a crystal ball. But by looking at the history, analyzing the current political situation and understanding what's driving the key players, we can get some valuable insights into where this relationship might be headed.
说话人 1 12:57
It really does feel like we're watching something historic happen, this relationship between Japan and China. I, it's at a turning point. And as we've talked about, there are so many pieces to this puzzle, history, the economy, global politics. It's fascinating to see how Japan's gonna handle it all.
说话人 2 13:16
It is. It's a really critical moment. And we've seen Japan taking some concrete steps to change things with China, even if it means maybe upsetting the US a little.
说话人 1 13:26
Yeah, and that image of Hayashi landing in Beijing in the middle of the night on Christmas Day. Alright. It's really stuck with me. It's a.
说话人 2 13:33
Powerful image.
说话人 1 13:34
It shows a level of commitment like, yeah, they're not messing around. This is important to them.
说话人 2 13:39
Exactly. It goes beyond the usual diplomatic stuff. It shows they're willing to put in the work.
说话人 1 13:44
But as we've said, there are some big challenges here. Historical issues that run deep. Geopolitical interests that clash and people on both sides who are suspicious of the whole thing. Like, I don't know, it's like they're trying to build a bridge across a raging river.
说话人 2 13:59
It's a good way to put it. And the question is, will that bridge hold up? Can Japan really address those historical grievances in a way that satisfies China? Can they balance their economic ties with China and the security concerns of the US? And maybe the biggest question of all, can they convince their own people that this is the right move?
说话人 1 14:21
So many questions, and it's hard to know the answers. It.
说话人 2 14:24
Is, it's complex, but.
说话人 1 14:25
I think that's what makes this whole thing so interesting. It's like we're watching a diplomatic drama unfold in real time.
说话人 2 14:31
Absolutely. With huge consequences for everyone. And.
说话人 1 14:34
I think this deep dive has shown why it's so important to look beyond the surface.
说话人 2 14:38
Right? You can't just read a headline or listen to a sound bite and think you understand what's going on. You have.
说话人 1 14:42
To dig deeper, understand the history, the economics, what's motivating the leaders. Exactly. And we have to remember this isn't static. It's constantly changing.
说话人 2 14:52
What seems certain today could be totally different to tomorrow.
说话人 1 14:55
The only thing we know for sure is that this relationship between Japan and China. It could be a major force in shaping the future of Asia and the whole world.
说话人 2 15:04
Completely agree. The next few years are gonna be critical. Oh, will they build a strong partnership that benefits both countries? Or will they fall back into that old pattern of rivalry and attention?
说话人 1 15:17
It's a question we'll all be thinking about as this story plays out for sure. And it reminds us that we live in a connected world. What happens between Japan and China affects all of.
说话人 2 15:27
Us, whether we realize it or not.
说话人 1 15:29
It affects trade, security, diplomacy.
说话人 2 15:31
It's a story that deserves our attention and one.
说话人 1 15:33
Will keep following closely. Absolutely. So as we wrap things up here, what's the one big takeaway you hope our listener walks away with?
说话人 2 15:41
Well, I think the main thing to remember is that we're seeing a fundamental shift in Japan's foreign policy driven by all these different factors, economic, political, historical. Japan is actively trying to create a new relationship with China. Whether they succeed or not, only time will tell. But the consequences are huge for everyone.
说话人 1 15:59
That's a great way to sum it up, and it leaves us with a lot to think about. What's the future hold for Japan and China? How will this affect the global balance of power? What can we learn from all of this? These are questions I hope our listeners will keep exploring. Thanks for joining us on this deep dive. We'll be back soon with more insight and analysis on this fascinating story. Until.
说话人 2 16:20
Next time.